Risky Business: Modeling the Future of Jamaica’s Coffee Production in a Changing Climate

Jamaica produces one of the most expensive coffees on global market. The local specialty coffee industry plays a significant role in island’s economy and also contributes to livelihood smallholders—the majority whom operate industry’s farms. While climate model projections suggest that will continue experience warming drying trend, no study has assessed future impacts changing climatic patterns coffee-growing areas. This research developed number geospatial processing models within ArcMap software platform current suitability crop across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) time periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2081–2100). results validated locations production revealed there was an observable decrease island, all SSP scenarios under study. Most growing regions were projected declines at least 10%, with severe changes occurring non-Blue Mountain SSP5-8.5 scenario. Implications this change range from decreased volumes, increased price volatility, disruption market operations incomes. paper’s findings offer stakeholders Jamaica’s opportunity develop targeted adaptation planning initiatives, point need for concrete decisions concerning investment pathways industry. It provides insight into other tropical around world are facing challenges associated change.